- BTC was able to meet a new ATH over the next three months, per macro analyst.
- The real MVRV value was 1.7, which indicates a small space for growth before BTC hits a local top.
Bitcoin (BTC) Has consolidated about $ 105,000 for four days, which signals a structure for an extra rally or probable relapse.
But analysts have made price calls for $ 135K- $ 200,000 over the next 3-6 months, with reference to improving the macrofront.
On May 12, BTC dumped 4% from $ 105,000 to $ 100.7K, a typical sale of news after US-China trade.
However, the asset turned the losses on May 13 after a modest 0.2% month-to-month April CPI inflation pressure, against the expected 0.3%.
The annual interest rate came in at 2.3%and fell below the forecast 2.4%, a positive view of Fed Rate lowered expectations from the third quarter.
Low inflation, positive macro to operate BTC?
In an e -mail message, 21Shares Crypto Investment Specialist David Hernandez told Ambcrypto,
“If this path (facilitating inflation, the nation state’s adoption) continues, price targets of $ 200,000 at the end of the year now seem increasingly realistic.”
Likewise Timothy Peterson, a BTC network analyst, noted That the US and China trade agreement triggered Vix (Volatility Index) to fall to a “normal” 30-year average.
Vix decay and lower inflation was a perfect set for a “risk-on” rally, Peterson added.
“Inflation came just lower than expected. This will be a” risk of “environment for the foreseeable future.”
Source: X.
For the unknown, VIX traces future price fluctuations and, by extension, the market’s fear meter.
Simply put, with tariff in USA-China out of the way, Market Fear (Higher Vix) has been replaced by Risk-On (Lower Vix) sentiment.
In an x post On May 1, Peterson emphasized that a potential Vix dip to 18 could press BTC to $ 107K in 3 weeks and +$ 135K in 100 days.
“A continuation on this road, and Vix <= 18, means bitcoin to $ 107K in 2-3 weeks and $ 135,000+ in 100 days."
What is next in the short term?
The jump to a new ath may, however, are not a smooth ride, according to one Report of the cryptocorm research company Swissblock.
The company previously quoted BTC Price Momentum and stated a potential correction to $ 104K $ 106K before a recovery to a record level was likely.
“Can $ BTC Press to unkind territory? A recovery can drive the next leg.”
Source: Swissblock
The attached diagram showed that BTC was at full haissert speed, but current levels also highlighted a Rally retreat in November-December.
But True MVRV, a valuation metric that flagged early and late 2024 local tops and bottoms, was disagreed with Swissblock Outlook.
Source: Cryptoquant
The meters’ reading was 1.7, somewhat far from the potential local top level of 2. In other words, BTC still had room for growth before a probable massive dragback.
In the option market, traders placed themselves for both scenario.
Over the past 24 hours, the $ 95K alternative (baisse -like bets) was the largest after trade volume, while calling for $ 105,000 and $ 115K (Hausse with bets) ranked as second and third.
Said otherwise, traders expected BTC to meet $ 115,000 in May but were prepared for a potential dip to $ 95K.
Source: Derivative
All in all, the positive macro environment can drive additional risk-on-feel and drive BTC to a new ATH. However, there were still chances that BTC would dip under $ 100K.
