In a conversation about the epicenter podcast, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin treated the threatening threat as quantum computers-one often cited existential risk of modern cryptography and blockchain networks. While many in the crypto industry consider quantum attacks as a distant or even speculative anxiety, Buterin offered a more nuanced and data -driven assessment, anchored in current research and technical prognosis.
Is Ethereum prepared for quantum computers?
According to Buterin, society can take meaningful clues from the prediction markets worth on platforms such as Metaculus, which collect expert forecasts for new technologies. “If you are only searching in Metaculus Quantum Computing,” he noted“The median answer you get for when a quantum computer is powerful enough to break cryptography is somewhere between 2030 and 2035.” This estimated time frame places the appearance of a credible quantum threat well within the life of Ethereum and other blockchain protocols that are currently in operation.
Buterin, however, was careful to distinguish between hype and reality. “There is a lot of grave in the quantum space,” he warned. Some organizations claim to have quantum computers, but what they often show is quantumediabatic machines – units that may be “technical quantum” in the structure, but are functionally incapable of performing the types of operations required to pose a real threat to cryptographic infrastructure. “In principle, they cannot do anything that interests that classic computers cannot do,” he clarified.
The actual benchmark for quantum risk, explained Buterin, is not existence of quantum machines In itself, but their demonstrated ability to run specific algorithms that break cryptography. “The question you ask is: What is the biggest number you have included with Shors Algorithm?” Buterin emphasized. “As long as the answer continues not to be over 35, it’s not super interesting.” SHORS algorithm is the primary quantalgorithm that can undermine RSA and other cryptographic standards used to a large extent in blockchain technologies. Its application on scale would signal a basic vulnerability in systems that rely on public key encryption.
Nevertheless, buterine recognized that real progress is made in quantum calculation research. Although there has not yet been a breakthrough that motivates panic, there is “a huge amount of progress that is happening on quantum that resists everything,” he said. The Ethereum community is already preparing for this event through cryptographic innovation. “Justin Drake Has worked with quantum-resistant aggregation-friendly signatures, ”noted Buterin and emphasized the active development of cryptographic primitive after quantum within the Ethereum research group.
Buterin ended on a note on cautious optimism: “So I am actually very optimistic that Ethereum will be able to cover it.” The Community’s proactive position on safety after the quantum, in combination with the slow and measurable pace in quantum progress, seems to offer a reasonable window for the transition.
That optimism gained fresh speed last week when Ethereum Foundation Published a roadmap to embed a ZKEVM directly in layer 1 within twelve months. The initiative, which is described by researcher Sophia Gold in the blog post “Shipping an L1 ZKEVM #1: Realtime Proving,” commits the protocol to verify briefly strong-based evidence of 99 percent of the main netwear in 12-second-second castle time, with a mandatory safety floor of 128 pieces under 300 pieces and during 300 pieces and during 300 pieces. By enabling validers-to and with solo stakeholders who run a “home commercial”-to verify blocks with quantum resistant evidence rather than returning each transaction, the plan aches both scalability and shrinks Ethereum’s attack surface should shake capable hardware that emerges before the schedule.
At press time, ETH was about $ 3,040.
Image from Youtube, chart from tradingview.com
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