Over the past two days, the Bitcoin price has dropped more than 10%, and rattled a crypto market that had seen a long -term period of relative stability. Pullbacken has left investors who question the role for us spot -based bitcoin ETFs in the decline, as data arises that reveal significant outflows from these products.
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 research, emphasized at X that ETF outflows have reached particularly high levels: “Yesterday’s net outflow of 14,579 BTC in BTC ETPs globally is the largest registered net flow since the launch of the US Spot ETFS. Outductions have dominated in February. 69% of all trading days have ended with net outflows. “
Are Bitcoin ETFs to blame?
These figures point to a steady drum of sales printing in the ETF market. The meaning, according to Lunde, is not only the only day’s nail in outflows but the sustained trend during the month of February.
But not all market observers agree that the large outflows necessarily spell ruin. Adam (@abetrade) from trading riot argue The fact that dramatic ETF flows have historically preceded market corrections that eventually return to average behavior. He pointed out that, with the exception of an exceptional inflow After Trump’s win On November 7, such “large red numbers” usually trigger panic sales that set the stage for a subsequent recovery.
Adam’s view is that the current situation can be an overreaction: when the first wave of sales decreases, the market can stabilize or even see a relief rally. This perspective is based on historical precedents where similar sections did not lead to maintained declines, which indicates that the prevailing feeling could eventually become the counter.
“Except for November 7, when large inflows followed Trump’s profit, all other occurrences of large inflows or outflows have been an average return signal. Generally speaking, people see a large red number and start to get panic sales, or vice versa, which stops sending the market in the opposite direction, ”pronounced Adam.
Adding further complexity to the image is the developing dynamics in the future markets. Zaheer Ebtikar, Head of Investment Manager and founder of Split Capital, Connect The dots between ETF outflows and future pricing. Until recently CME futures Shopped with almost twice the premium for conventional cryptocurrency exchanges. A new correction, however, saw the futures premium dip below 5%level is approaching the risk-free interest rate.
Ebtikar noted that this correction has been crucial. When the future premium was normalized, the market players seemed to “throw in the towel” at Bitcoin ETFs, with CME -Futures open interest that falls to the lowest since the latest election cycle. This decline in open interest, accompanied by almost record trade volumes on CME, points to a change in the feeling where investors are becoming increasingly cautious in keeping ETFs while they are still participating in future speculation.
The interaction between a shrinking futures premium and rising futures volume creates a paradox. “In a paradoxical way, Futures premium downs = futures to get bids and ETFs are starting to dump. The last story here was CME -Futures volume in recent days that reached near record heights since the election, ”concluded ebtikar.
Macro headwind
Macroeconomic anxiety also draws both in crypto and traditional markets. Singapore-based QCP Capital describes the situation as a “global risk-off movement” affecting stocks, gold and BTC, in the midst of growing whispering stagflation. The consumer’s feeling has taken a hit, proposed by a weaker than expected consumer confidence index of 98 (against 103 expected), while the recently confirmed 25% customs of the US administration on Canadian and Mexican import effect 3 March-have further subdued the feeling.
As QCP Capital sees it, investors grow cautious with potential trading escalations and increased inflation, which together create an atmosphere of uncertainty. The once narrow “magnificent 7” stock trade is discovered, and “Long Crypto” has also been identified as one of the most exaggerated positions. In choppy markets, crypto is often the first to liquidate, which reinforces the negative price measure.
When looking forward, QCP Capital points to a couple of important events that can set the tone. Nvidia revenue and this week’s PCE print. The results of the chip maker, who has run the wave of AI-driven demand, can trigger another leg if the guidance disappears. The upcoming personal consumption expenses (PCE) data are predicted to 2.5% compared to the previous year, still over the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2%. Until inflation convincing trends lower, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates stable. Markets are currently praising two interest rates in 2025, the first in June or July.
QCP Capital warns that the markets remain fragile and give advice on caution as consumer and retail surveys – often leading indicators – can give early signals about a stagflation path.
At press time, BTC was about $ 87,818.
