- Long-term BTC holders dominate when new investors’ inflows remain weak.
- Rising Bitcoin coin days destroyed and closed short liquidations signal increased volatility with fading support on the chain.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) Rally seems to be mature.
According to Utxo Age Band dataCoins held for 6–12 months now dominate, while long-term holders are especially the above 1-year-old-Försetter to leave.
At the same time, the proportion of new investors – the holding coins for less than a month – has dropped below 20%, far from 50%+ that usually seen in bicycle peaks.
Therefore, BTC’s latest height seems to be driven by internal cycling rather than fresh capital, which creates a scenario where existing holders rotate positions in the midst of weakening inflows.
Source: Cryptoquant
Resting coins wake up when CDD rises
Of course, as older coins move, the coin days rise destroyed (CDD) metric. That was what happened here, with CDD that climbed 2.09% to 26.1 million.
This suggests that older coins are on their way. This metric accumulates value when dormant coins are implemented, often the previous market shift.
Historically, an increase in CDD has adapted to distribution phases, where long -term BTC enters circulation for profit realization.
Therefore, the metric supports the observed outflow of long -term holders and growing 6-12 months of activity.
If the trend remains, Bitcoin may face overhead prints from gradual sales of experienced investors who take profits near top levels.
Source: Cryptoquant
Does Bitcoin lose its scarcity appeal?
At the same time, Bitcoin’s warehouse-to-feed ratio fell by 20%, which indicates that its scarcity premium is weakened. The S2F model, which historically supported long-term haus stories, now reflects reduced conviction.
When the scarcity is weakened among low new demand, price estimate becomes more difficult to maintain.
Source: Cryptoquant
But exchange reserves dropped by 1.83% to $ 258.53 billion, indicating that fewer coins are available for immediate sales.
Although this often suggests reduced pressure on the sales side, it can also mean shrinking liquidity. With fewer coins on exchanges, volatility can increase if demand suddenly changes.
In addition, the lack of significant inflows from retail buyers aggravates the liquidity risk.
Will short liquidations over $ 107K run the next move?
Here is Twist: BTC/USDT -Liken map showed a massive card press zone that sat between $ 107K and $ 113K.
If BTC cleans the $ 107K level, the subsequent short press can trigger a sharp uphill nail. However, the leverage effect seems modest in long positions, indicating that bulls remain cautious.
This cautious feeling adapts to reduced new investor activity and rising CDD. Consequently, all potential upside can be temporary unless broader market engagement is strengthened.
Source: Coinglass
Can BTC maintain without new investors’ participation?
BTC’s latest increase seems to be driven more by internal cycling among existing holders than genuine demand.
The increase in CDD, sink in S2F and weakens the new investors’ inflow everyone points to an aging rally.
While short liquidation clusters provide upward potential in place, long -term sustainability depends on renewed interest from new capital.
Unless the proportion of new investors begins to grow, BTC risks getting into a stagnation or correction phase – despite temporarily haus -like triggers.
