- On-chain data shows renewed buying interest and lower supply on Binance, driving Bitcoin’s recent price rally.
- Open interest and active addresses also indicate stronger market participation and potential for additional profits.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a volatile path since the beginning of the year. After an early rally, the cryptocurrency faced a sharp correction that left many investors unsure market direction.
However, a recent surge on January 20 pushed Bitcoin’s price to a new all-time high, briefly breaking above $109,000.
Although the asset experienced a slight pullback, trading at $107,945, it continued up 3.5% over the past 24 hours, reflecting a double-digit gain over the past week.
Amidst this price activity, analysts have been closely monitoring key metrics in the chain.
According to a CryptoQuant analyst, the Binance Netflow SMA30 – a 30-day moving average of netflows on Binance – has offered valuable insights into market sentiment and price trends.
The analyst points out that changes in this metric often correlate with notable price movements, indicating that the current rally may have more room to run.
Bitcoin netflow trends and market dynamics
The Binance Netflow SMA30 metric has historically been a useful indicator for predicting Bitcoin’s short-term price direction.
When the metrics enter positive territory, it often signals increased selling pressure as more Bitcoin flows into Binance.
For example, in May 2024, a positive Netflow SMA30 coincided with a fall in Bitcoin’s price from $71,000 to $50,000, highlighting a period of increased supply and bearish sentiment.
Source: CryptoQuant
Conversely, when the Netflow SMA30 turns negative, it usually indicates reduced spot supply and stronger upward momentum.
This pattern was evident in November 2024, when the metrics shifted negative and Bitcoin climbed from $74,000 to $108,000.
As of January 17, the SMA30 returned to negative territory, sitting at -207.85, indicating renewed buying interest and raising the possibility of another rally to a new all-time high.
Additional insights
In addition to the Binance Netflow SMA30, other indicators provided a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s future prospects.
Open interest data from Coinglass shows an increase of 4.61% in the last 24 hours and reached a valuation of 71.21 billion USD.
Source: Coinglass
Open Interest volume has also increased by 156.60% over the same period, reaching $179.14 billion.
These increases reflected growing trader engagement and potential momentum in the derivatives market, which could affect Bitcoin’s spot price.
Also Glassnode data on active addresses—a proxy for retail participation—revealed recent spikes in user activity.
Read Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction 2025–2026
The number of active addresses increased from under 1 million earlier this month to 2.2 million on January 17th, before retreating to 1.1 million on January 19th.
Source: Glassnode
While the fluctuation in active addresses indicates variation in retail interest, the overall increase earlier in the month suggests more participants are engaging with the Bitcoin network.
