In a thread on X today, January 20, Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x), a general partner at Momentum 6, laid out a bold forecast for Ethereum (ETH), suggesting that the world’s second largest cryptocurrency could reach a price target of $14,000 by the end of 2025. Liu also claims that the next six months will be crucial, highlighting ETH’s potential to “dominate the market” until June.
“Ethereum is about to dominate the market, you don’t want to miss this window,” Liu wrote. “Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin this cycle, but that is about to change. I think ETH will shine in the next 6 months.”
Why Ethereum Could Outperform the Market
Despite ETH’s growing adoption, Liu argues that its underperformance relative to Bitcoin is due to “institutional timing.” According to him: “ETH is institutionally driven, unlike Bitcoin or retail-favored altcoins. ETFs provide stability and utility, making ETH ideal for institutional investors.” Liu suggests that institutions have been waiting for market conditions to improve and sees 2025 as the year when those conditions finally adjust.
Liu also points to the US Federal Reserve’s policy shifts as a catalyst for ETH’s growth. He notes that since May 2024, the Fed has slowed its balance sheet reductions, and a possible pivot toward renewed liquidity injections could occur after the January 29 or March 19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
“Since May 2024, the Fed has been slowing its balance sheet, signaling a pivot. A liquidity boost could follow FOMC meetings on January 29 or March 19. Why it matters: Fed liquidity pumps historically drive ETH/BTC higher.” He concludes that such a move by the Fed “means ETH yield” may be on the horizon.
Citing a decade of market data, Liu claims that ETH typically outperforms Bitcoin from January to June, while Bitcoin tends to lead from July to December. “From January to June, ETH consistently outperforms Bitcoin. … If you hold ETH, now until June is historically the best window for gains.”
Liu also highlights potential pro-ETH sentiment from the Trump administration, citing the former president’s NFT collections and DeFi platform built on Ethereum: “His NFT Collections and the DeFi platform are built on Ethereum. Trump administration plans to replace SEC leadership and review anti-DeFi rulings. Institutional optimism increased following Trump’s November 2024 election victory, driving ETF inflows.” He concludes that “pro-crypto policies will directly benefit Ethereum-focused DeFi.”
Liu further underscores Ethereum’s institutional strength, pointing to real asset (RWA) tokenization initiatives by major companies such as BlackRock and prominent DeFi platforms like AAVE, MakerDAO and OriginTrail: “Ethereum isn’t leading meme coin or AI trends – it’s driving serious institutional growth.”
Liu highlights a notable change in Ethereum ETF inflows, which turned positive in November 2024 after a period of outflows: “ETFs added $6 billion in net inflows from November to January, or 0.76% of ETH supply/month. … Institutions are buying more ETH than BTC each month, signaling growing confidence in Ethereum as an asset.”
Liu believes that ETH can quadruple to $14,000 if Bitcoin doubles to $200,000, citing Ethereum’s historical tendency to outperform Bitcoin by another factor of two: “If Bitcoin doubles to $200,000, ETH can 4x to $14,000 , after its historical outperformance (2x on top of BTC).… While diminishing returns may limit the upside, ETH is still a bet on high conviction for this bike.”
Summarizing his perspective, Liu emphasizes that a confluence of factors – from renewed Fed liquidity to potential pro-DeFi policies – creates a near-term opportunity for Ethereum: “With rising ETF inflows, the Fed’s potential liquidity addition, Trump’s pro-DeFi stance and ETH ’s seasonal strength is all in line. … Ethereum’s time to shine is now until June. I would rather be overexposed than miss this opportunity.”
At press time, ETH was trading at $106,929.
